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Recently, Zuo Wu, a dealer of Lede Township in Yicheng County, Linyi City, Shanxi Province, once again received a price reduction notice from Shanxi Fengxi Fertilizer Industry. “We dropped another 20 yuan!†This year, Shi Zuowu has received at least eight such calls from manufacturers, and the price of fertilizers has fluctua- ted. Only after a few days of his life has the mind become paralyzed, because after dropping this phone, the fertilizer price will Immediately reflected in the terminal market, retailers should keep asking for price cuts.
Since the spring of this year, the downturn in the fertilizer industry has not been reversed. The pressure on urea sales is equally high. There is no good news in the summer market. The domestic coal price has continued to decline. This has brought further downside to the price of urea in the future. The urea market The price is weak.
Fertilizer prices continue to fall. "Urea ex-factory prices have now dropped to 1600 yuan to 1,650 yuan / ton, this is the lowest price since 2008, and compound fertilizer also decreased by 200 yuan to 300 yuan / ton over the same period in previous years. I operate Fertilizer for many years, this year's market is too sluggish." Shi Zuowu sorting the books on the table, while talking, hear his inner anxiety.
It is understood that the recent market price of urea in Shanxi Province has stabilized, and the mainstream factory price of urea enterprises is about 1670 yuan to 1700 yuan/ton. Affected by the weak demand in the domestic urea market, the external sales of the manufacturers are not ideal, and the urea factory price is stable.
According to industry analysts, the main reason for the sluggish domestic single fertilizer market this year is overcapacity. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to April this year, the cumulative amount of urea in China was 24 million tons, an increase of 14% year-on-year. It is understood that the domestic production capacity of diammonium and monoammonium exceeds the actual demand by more than 50%.
Manufacturers are forced to "take the price"
Shi Zuowu explained that the market in Shanxi Province in June and July this year had no other requirements than corn dressing, and it entered the off-season fertilization season. Farmers in Shanxi Province are accustomed to using high-nitrogen compound fertilizer or urea for top-dressing. Because urea falls, peasants purchase more urea, the trading volume of compound fertilizer decreases, and compound fertilizer prices also fall. Due to the lack of demand, the productivity of some high-nitrogen compound fertilizers in Shanxi enterprises is not high, and the mainstream ex-factory price is around RMB 2,000/ton.
According to the analysis of relevant person in charge of Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, as the main raw material for production of chemical fertilizers, the prices of mineral raw materials such as coal, mineral oil, and phosphate rock have all recently been adjusted downwards. Under the condition of low market demand, the cost support function has weakened, and the future of chemical fertilizers will decrease. The price trend is not optimistic. According to the person in charge, as the off-season market continues, most manufacturers in the summer are producing on demand. Recently, manufacturers in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, and other places that stop production and maintenance have continued to increase. It is reported that the operating rate in the southwest region is relatively low. Currently, most of the small manufacturers have already stopped production. The average operating rate of other mainstream manufacturers is only around 34%. Compared to last year, the operating rate and output have fallen by nearly half.
The farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain increased by watching more than 50 acres of corn growing around. Wang Cheng, a villager at the bottom of the city, was happy to open flowers. This year's rain was so great that his own growing corn was gratifying. He could produce 1,500 pounds per mu. The current price of 1.5 yuan per kilogram of corn, planing to cost, you can easily earn more than 100,000 yuan.
"This year's fertilizer is also cheaper than in previous years. If you plant a slice of corn, it will take five to six months and earn 100,000 yuan. What can you do without planting it?" Wang Shun could not conceal his joy inside.
It is understood that due to the support of the State's agricultural support policy, the sown area of ​​corn in southern Shanxi this year is twice as much as in previous years.
Industry insiders predict that in the next stage, the fertilizer market price will still lack support. Affected by raw material prices, the compound fertilizer market outlook will probably decline. In the summer, the high-nitrogen fertilizer preparation fertilizer has come to an end and the price adjustment is of little significance. The autumn fertilizer prices are still waiting to see.
Shi Zuowu introduced that the fertilizer market gradually entered the off-season, the current end of the summer market in Shanxi and the autumn policy was not introduced, and the market conditions were chaotic, but the overall trend did not change to a low trend; according to past practice, after the start of fertilizer preparation in autumn, the The raw material market has some support, but at present, there is sufficient inventory of compound fertilizers, and raw material prices remain low. The compound fertilizer price itself lacks support, and the price increase in autumn is less likely. 