Investment scale super planning 3 times photovoltaic power station

Since August 2011, the photovoltaic industry has seen an upsurge in assembling photovoltaic power plants. Among the fans, in addition to the traditional power companies, there are also upstream manufacturers who are deeply involved in loss-making and muddy, and even some other industrial capital that is in a stranger to photovoltaics.

In their eyes, photovoltaic power plant development has an investment return rate of nearly 10% relative to the level of gross profit margin that is commonly met in the equipment manufacturing sector. This is an excellent landscape for the photovoltaic winter. As a result, people are rushing and waiting.

However, turning over the latest financial statements of these companies will find that the "10% investment rate of return" with huge sums of money is rarely honoured, and only high asset-liability ratios are high, photovoltaic power station development has gradually become capital. game.

Analysts pointed out that despite the “12th Five-Year Plan” 35 GW installed vision is being guided, but before the industry bottlenecks can not be avoided, capital and enterprises should reflect on their own development strategy, not to drag the photovoltaic industry into The next mud.

More than 3 times the scale of investment planning

“Our actions are late, and good resources are almost divided.” A securities representative from a domestic medium-sized photovoltaic listed company told a reporter from China Securities Journal. The background of these remarks is that the photovoltaic industry is setting off a battle for power station development in full swing under the favorable policies. Among them, the first entrants had already made good resources in the relatively convenient areas in the western region two years ago. Their company, as latecomers, had to be forced to build power plants on the edge of the desert in Zhongwei City, Ningxia. In the past June, the company signed a 300MW power plant construction agreement with the Zhongwei City government.

However, he was also pleased to say: “Although it was a bit late, it should be able to catch up with a lively big set, because power station development is currently the blue ocean of the photovoltaic industry.” Indeed, since August 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission launched photovoltaic power generation. Since the on-grid tariff subsidy, the eyes of the capital for the photovoltaic industry have shifted from past manufacturing to downstream power station development.

The statistics of Solarzoom, a professional photovoltaic market research institution in China, shows that the domestically announced intentions, signings, and photovoltaic projects under development have reached 130 GW, which is even higher than the national newly planned capacity of 35 GW by 2015. The goal of the second five is more than three times as many. According to the average investment cost of 7.5 yuan/watt, trillions of yuan will be invested in the construction of this photovoltaic power station in the next few years.

The participants of this wave can also be described as coming from a wide variety of sources. The reporter sorted out that the first echelon of domestic photovoltaic power station development is the upstart of the traditional five major power groups as well as China National Nuclear Power, Aerospace Machinery, and China Merchants New Energy. Among them, the CPI has one-tenth of the share of all photovoltaic power plant projects; and in the western region where solar energy resources are most abundant, 60% of the photovoltaic power plant project development rights have been steadily shaken by the central government.

The second echelon is mostly a photovoltaic manufacturing company that extends upstream. The dozens of listed companies in the A-share photovoltaic manufacturing sector have almost started to engage in power station development business in the past two years. Among them, the most ambitious company is Hairun Photovoltaic. The number of domestic photovoltaic power plants currently signed is nearly 500 megawatts. In the plan, this size will reach 1 GW (1000 MW) by 2015.

Among the remaining participants, there are even investors who have come from all walks of life. Just in the past 7-8 months, there are at least two A-share listed companies announced the entry into the photovoltaic power plant announcement: Zhongtian Technology from lithium battery R & D and manufacturing, plans to invest 200 million yuan in Jiangsu Rudong development of photovoltaic power plant project; Songliao Automobile, which was transformed from the auto parts business, also plans to raise 2.3 billion yuan to invest in photovoltaic power generation.

The above-mentioned photovoltaic company's securities reporter told reporters that even in the Ningxia Zhongwei project of their company's investment and construction project, the desert has gathered around Guodian, Zhongye Enfei, Jingneng Aerospace Group and many other "National" army groups. "You can You can feel the ubiquity of this boom."

The expected return is still in the stage of "painting cake"

Increasing investment in PV power plants is pointing to a point that is much higher than the return on investment in photovoltaic manufacturing.

According to theoretical calculations, the internal rate of return on the investment return of photovoltaic power plants in the western region can reach 8%-10%. If the investor has stronger bargaining power on the downstream, it may even be higher; only 20% is required. With its own funds, a net profit margin of 10% is readily available, and the net asset yield of investment in photovoltaic power plants is even as high as 50%. As such, photovoltaic power plant development is indeed a good deal.

However, there is a prerequisite for this level of profitability to be fulfilled. That is, the lighting resources in the area where the photovoltaic power plant is located are superior, and the conditions for the project to be connected to the network are convenient. More importantly, the internal rate of return of 8%-10% is the stability of the power station. Run 25 years of average life cycle. However, these preconditions are not easy to achieve under the current status of the domestic photovoltaic industry. Therefore, the so-called sustained and stable rate of return is actually the investment party's "painting cake".

An analyst from BOCI Securities told reporters that, in fact, many current capital companies, especially “half-way” manufacturing companies, actively participate in the development of power plants. They do not want to hold power plants for long-term gains. They have more original intentions and they digest themselves. The backlog of battery components has long been inventories, and the second is to hope that the BT model will be transferred to operators after the completion of the power station to obtain additional revenue. “For them, obtaining the project approval “Road” at the fastest speed and successfully achieving grid connection, and then promptly taking off gloves, is the most realistic consideration.” The analyst said that, in theory, the power station built that year must be Only when the network is realized and transferred during the year can a successful transaction be considered.

According to the analyst's research, from the current status of domestic companies investing in photovoltaic power plants, the power plants that can be successfully connected and sold are relatively concentrated abroad, and the sales rate is only 25%. The power station projects are even rarer and the only ones that can be derived are the two companies, aerospace electromechanical and Zhongli Technology. Among them, Zhongli Technology transferred the total of more than 400 megawatts of photovoltaic power plant projects to China Merchants New Energy in June last year and August this year.

According to statistics from Solarzoom, the total number of photovoltaic power plant projects completed in 2011 and 2012 was nearly 4,000 megawatts, but less than 1,000 megawatts of successful sales were achieved, which means that the vast majority of photovoltaic power plants are still waiting for buyers.

According to the reporter's understanding, even if it succeeds in realizing the sale of photovoltaic power plants, its transfer path is not smooth. Zhongli Technology announced on May 23 last year that the company had successfully transferred 120MW of power station projects located in Gansu and Qinghai to China Merchants Renewable Energy. On the same day, the company also announced that it had subscribed for China Merchants New Energy 9.1% for RMB 40.99 million. The equity. At that time, China Merchants New Energy was on the eve of the Hong Kong stock market. This cannot but guess that there may be an exchange relationship between the two.

Another A-share listed company, Hairun Solar, has formulated a plan to build a 1 GW power station in the “Twelfth Five-year Plan”, but according to the company’s newly released 2013 interim report, it is currently constructing nearly 500 MW of domestic power station projects. With the development of 20 MW in cooperation with Guodian, most of the remaining projects have not yet obtained the "roads" that have been approved for start-up. There is no way to talk about the completion, connection, and sale.

The aforementioned PV companies also admitted to reporters that the 300 megawatt power plant construction agreement they had signed was the main task of the company. They are currently trying to get the “road” of the local government as soon as possible, as well as follow-up procedures and looking for power station buyers. There is still uncertainty.

In the reporter's investigation, the most voice heard from developers of photovoltaic power plants is that they expect that the state-owned enterprises or local state-owned enterprises will promptly make up the market. In this regard, as a representative of a central state-owned enterprise, an official of Guodian Photoelectric told reporters that at present, a large-scale photovoltaic power station is built in the northwest, and the overall unit price for doing the whole process is about 8 yuan/watt, and the power stations completed before 2012 will be reported by developers. Prices are basically above 9 yuan / watt, even up to 12 yuan / watt, the operator and the developer can not talk about the price, which is the basic fact. “It is not as good as building a power station with its own high-priced power station. Moreover, in many BT projects, the quality of power stations built by developers is generally low, which affects the efficiency of power generation in the later period. Therefore, there is generally no incentive for central enterprises to purchase photovoltaic power stations,” he said.

Money person "game" someone can not afford

According to the aforementioned statistical data, there are currently more than 3000 MW of PV power plants that have been completed for sale in China. If you can't get away in time, then the choice that many BT project developers have to make is to switch from the developer to the operator and the BT project to the BOT project. This means that the return period for the huge amount of capital spent on the construction of the power plant in the previous period will be lengthened, and the capital pressure capacity of the large and small developers will be tested. Under this situation, the upsurge of the development of this photovoltaic power plant will evolve into a "game" for rich people.

According to the above-mentioned BOC International analysts, in general, the construction of a 100 MW photovoltaic power plant currently requires at least 10 billion yuan of capital investment. Corporate project financing requires a minimum of 20% (some as high as 30%) of its own funds and 80% of bank loans. Due to the current low degree of prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, domestic banks are relatively cautious about lending to the photovoltaic business. Loans for many large-scale power plant projects require companies to pledge at least equal assets. This requires developers to have sufficient reserves of their own funds.

It is well known that the financial status of the photovoltaic industry, especially manufacturers, has been deteriorating in the past two years. Among them, some of the financial indicators of companies that have participated in photovoltaic power plants are even more dazzling. Take Tuoxin Energy, Hairun Solar, and Variety Arts as examples, all three companies started to invest in photovoltaic power plant construction after 2011. With the continuous advancement of power station projects, the three companies’ short-term loans and medium and long-term loans (especially short-term loans) Rapid growth, according to statistics, in the first half of 2013, the short-term borrowings of Topsun Solar, Hairun Solar, and Variety Shares amounted to 345 million yuan, 1.652 billion yuan, and 752 million yuan, respectively, both higher than the respective levels of the respective companies in the past two years. . Correspondingly, the asset-liability ratio of PV power plant development companies has also been steadily rising. For example, the asset-liability ratio of Zhongli Technology and Oriental Sunrise in 2011 was 40.33% and 69.11%, respectively, but it rose to 53.76% and 77.80 respectively in the first half of the year. %.

BOC International analysts believe that with the accelerated growth of power plant development in the future, some companies will even fall into the danger of capital chain fracture.

Unable to play the company has begun to choose to leave. In a notice released in May this year, Tuo Ri Xin Neng said that it intends to transfer 49% of its equity in a joint venture in Xinjiang, Kashgari City, to its controlling shareholder, Oxin Investment. According to statistics, the main business of Kashgar Ruicheng is the construction and operation of large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power plants. For this move, Tecsun New Energy was reluctant to claim that photovoltaic power plant development is currently facing risks such as narrowing of financing channels, rising financing costs, and uncertainty of future revenues from power plant projects. In consideration of the above risks, the company will focus on photovoltaics in the future. Photothermal new product development, production and sales.

Other companies have started to “thigh” capital to find a way for the development of photovoltaic power plants. On July 5th, Hareon Solar announced that the company will cooperate with Jiangxi Shunfeng Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. to develop the 499 MW photovoltaic power plant currently in operation, involving a huge capital of RMB 4.2 billion. Shunfeng Optoelectronics is a big capital player active in the new energy industry in recent years. In January this year, Zheng Jianming, the actual controller of Shunfeng Optoelectronics, acquired the Anhui subsidiary of PV giant LDK under the giant solar giant's 25 million yuan.

It is worth noting that Shunfeng Optoelectronics' acquisition of photovoltaic power plants is viewed by many in the industry as not wanting to do the business of power station operation, but rather to use the securitization of power station assets to play a game for PV power station development. This is also an open secret that many capitalists are keen on.

The so-called asset securitization is to pack the relevant assets and benefits of photovoltaic power plants and divide them into a number of equal parts. The products are sold to different investors through financial institutions such as qualified trusts. This kind of photovoltaic power station development model can greatly reduce the financing costs of photovoltaic power plants and share risks. It has been highly respected in recent days.

However, rational market analysts have warned that the asset securitization business of photovoltaic power plants is a blank in China, and its mode of operation is still in the discussion stage. There are still many uncertainties in large-scale promotion. According to an industry senior expert, securitization is a virtual valuation of power plant assets. It is based on the discounted future cash flow, rather than the current net asset model of bank credit. However, there are many uncertainties in the operation of photovoltaic power plants due to power grid restrictions, inadequate subsidies, and the attenuation of the power stations themselves, as well as weather. How to determine cash flow is a major issue. “After all, for a power plant spanning 25 years, in addition to the policy environment, we must consider not only the efficiency factors of the battery components, but also the weather factors during the period, and there are too many uncertainties.” He said.

The aforementioned photovoltaic listed company's securities agency also told reporters that although there are long-term potentials for asset securitization of photovoltaic power plants, for companies, short-term considerations are still trying to find buyers to sell power plants. "At the moment, it can be sold to the power station. It is king," he said.

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