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Second-quarter cold rolling market may continue to explore low
In the second quarter, the cold-rolled steel market has shown a more stable performance compared to other steel products, despite the overall downward trend in domestic steel prices. Weak demand for construction steel and hot-rolled coils, combined with high production levels from steel mills and negative macroeconomic pressures, have led to significant price declines across many sectors. However, cold-rolled coils have experienced a slower drop, falling by approximately 300 RMB per ton, which has made them relatively more resilient.
One key factor behind this resilience is the lighter supply pressure on cold-rolled steel. Both cold-rolled and hot-rolled coil outputs hit record highs in March, but the increase in cold-rolled production was proportionally smaller compared to the much larger base of hot-rolled products. This means that while both sectors saw growth, the supply chain for cold-rolled steel remained less strained.
Inventory levels also play a role. While hot-rolled and construction steel inventories have fluctuated significantly over the years, cold-rolled coil stock has remained relatively stable, staying below 2 million tons for over a year. This controlled inventory level helps maintain better price stability.
On the demand side, the auto and appliance industries have been major consumers of cold-rolled steel. China’s automobile production and sales reached record levels in March 2013, with both exceeding 2 million units. The home appliance sector also showed strong growth, with increases in TV, refrigerator, and washing machine output. As temperatures rise, air conditioner manufacturers are ramping up procurement, further supporting demand for cold-rolled steel.
In contrast, construction steel demand has been weak due to slow project progress and the impact of new real estate policies. The property market has seen declining transaction volumes, and new construction starts have dropped significantly compared to last year.
Additionally, the intermediate demand for hot-rolled coils has weakened, partly due to reduced trade credit and lower terminal demand. In comparison, the demand for cold-rolled steel has remained more stable, with minimal impact from business-to-business bartering trends.
However, despite these positive factors, the cold-rolled market may not sustain its current advantage. With weaker economic conditions expected in the second quarter, downstream industries may delay purchases, leading to limited market support. Steel mill shipments are still high, and with large price cuts and discounts, the market could face further downward pressure. The price gap between hot and cold rolled steel is currently around 1,000 RMB per ton, suggesting there is still room for cold-rolled prices to fall.
Overall, while the cold-rolled steel market has performed better than others in the short term, sustaining this advantage in the coming months looks challenging.