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The steel market or interpretation of "dragon" and "snake" transformation
Since December 2012, building materials such as PVC, rebar, and glass have become standout performers in the futures market. Rebar and glass, in particular, saw rebounds exceeding 10%, with glass attracting significant attention from investors. However, starting in January, these materials entered a period of consolidation, with spot prices lagging behind the futures market. While short-term bullish momentum may slow down, the broader trend remains positive.
Market participants are closely watching for a potential new upward wave in building materials after the Spring Festival. Currently, the sector is a battleground between bulls and bears, with funds favoring the long side. On the previous day, glass and rebar ranked first and second in trading volume, while their respective open interest positions were among the top four.
The recent surge in building materials can be attributed to positive expectations around urbanization and a rebound in the real estate sector. Additionally, active fund participation has played a key role in driving prices higher. Analysts at Shanghai Mid-Term noted that two types of star assets have emerged recently: one being building materials, driven by the expected macroeconomic recovery in 2013 and policy support for urbanization; the other being newly listed commodities like glass, which saw increased investor interest after a decline in 2012.
Guotai Junan Securities analyst Fu Yang highlighted that although real estate investment data in December 2012 fell below expectations, the long-term outlook remains favorable. Prices of building materials linked to real estate, such as glass and rebar, are likely to remain strong in the coming quarter.
Shanghai Mid-Term analyst Chang Xuemei pointed out that the price of PVC has been rising since December 2012, mainly due to increasing calcium carbide prices and signs of recovery in the real estate industry. Since PVC demand is largely tied to construction projects like pipes and profiles, its performance is closely linked to the health of the real estate market.
Xinghai Senior Analyst Shi Hai noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 showed improvement compared to earlier quarters. However, short-term consumption faced challenges due to pre-holiday stockpiling and seasonal weakness, creating a contradiction between long-term economic strength and short-term demand fluctuations. This dynamic has led to increased competition and price volatility in the sector.
Despite the market buzz, the spot market has not kept up with the pace of futures. Analysts at the Commodity Research Center believe that the downward trend in spot prices is being exacerbated by speculative hype and policy-driven news. Xu Xiaokun pointed out that falling raw material prices, including PVC and rebar, are making it difficult to sustain spot market gains. With winter conditions and off-season demand, the outlook for the building materials market remains weak in the near term.
According to monitoring data from the Rubber and Plastics Branch, PVC spot prices declined by 0.08% last week, affected by weak external stimuli and lower period prices. The calcium carbide market continues to show downward pressure, with downstream factories hesitant to purchase, leading to poor trading volumes.
In the case of rebar, despite a similar price increase, steel production rose in January, but demand remained stable due to the approaching Spring Festival. As a result, prices have seen a brief rise followed by consolidation.
For glass, spot prices in East, North, and Central China remained stable, but demand was weak, and market confidence was low. With southern regions entering a “hibernation period†after the work season, the overall glass market is expected to remain weak. However, analysts expect a recovery after the Spring Festival.
Many market participants remain optimistic about the building materials sector post-Spring Festival, anticipating a new wave of gains. Analyst Chang Xuemei from Shanghai Mid-Term believes that increased infrastructure investment and affordable housing projects will drive demand, leading to a new rally after the holiday.
Zhao Xue from the Business and Building Materials Branch noted that the 2013 glass market outlook is positive, with southern demand expected to strengthen and northern prices close to cost levels, limiting further declines. After the Spring Festival, the domestic glass market is anticipated to recover.
Regarding rebar, January prices fluctuated, mirroring spot price movements. With the off-season and lack of raw material support, the construction steel market is expected to maintain a weak downward trend. However, after the holidays, with infrastructure projects resuming, prices could see a rebound.
PVC futures remain above spot prices, reflecting a bullish sentiment, though with limited upside potential. Analyst Ting Yi from the Rubber & Plastics Branch predicts that the market will remain range-bound in the short term.
Fu Yang reiterated that while December 2012 real estate and fixed asset investment data were weaker than expected, the long-term trend remains positive. Building material-related commodities like rebar and glass are likely to stay strong in the first quarter.
Overall, the building materials market is still in an early phase, with some companies preparing for a slowdown ahead of the Spring Festival. However, after the holiday, a stronger market movement is expected.
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