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In March 2009, the 1.09 yuan/kWh photovoltaic on-grid electricity price generated by the bidding for the Dunhuang PV Internet Project in China was still fresh in memory. At that time, the extremely low bid price of 0.69 yuan / kWh had caused a lot of sensation in the industry. Will the on-grid price generated by this year's bid will repeat "low price competition"? Although companies nervously preparing for PV tenders have indicated that they are unable to predict the final bid price for the time being, it is widely believed that this year's PV price is unlikely to repeat the mistakes of last year for two reasons:
First, unlike last year, the PV projects tendered this year have been greatly expanded, from 10 MW last year to 280 MW this year, including 60 MW in Inner Mongolia, 60 MW in Xinjiang, and 60 MW in Gansu. There are 13 projects in Qinghai, 50 MW, Ningxia 30 MW, and Shaanxi 20 MW. As the supply increases, the competition for participants to “win the bid†will drop sharply, and the need to report “super low price†electricity prices will be weakened.
Second, since the beginning of this year, the terminal demand for foreign PV market has continued to flourish, the demand for photovoltaic modules has increased significantly, and the price of battery components has also risen to varying degrees, even to the price of raw material polysilicon. The cost has been improved. On the one hand, the products of the PV companies are not for sale. According to the forecast, the bidding enterprises should not be too low.
Many PV companies are even optimistic about this round of electricity prices. Yan Xiaotong, chairman of Artes Solar Power Co., Ltd. said that the reasonable price of China's photovoltaic grid-connected power generation concession bid should be 1.4-1.5 yuan per degree based on an internal rate of return of 8%.
However, PV experts close to the authorities said that they are not optimistic about the future PV feed-in tariff. The reason is that the psychological expectations of the relevant authorities for the on-grid price are actually far less high. After all, the future development of the photovoltaic industry needs to continue to decline. If the on-grid price determined this year exceeds the price of 1.09 yuan/kWh last year, then In terms of the promotion of photovoltaic power generation, the significance is not great.
The above-mentioned person said that if the excessive PV on-grid price is generated, it is also a huge challenge for the state financial subsidy. The reason is that the country's 4 cents of renewable energy additional funds are limited, and the rate of collection is only 60%, there is no way to meet Excessive PV price subsidies.
Under the expected gap in electricity prices, more PV companies are quietly calculating the minimum on-grid tariffs the company can afford. A domestic crystalline silicon battery manufacturer said that if the on-grid price is finally established at more than 1.10 yuan, the company can achieve a gross margin of 10%. If it is established at around 1 yuan / kWh, it will be the bottom line that the company can bear.
Domestic and foreign markets can not be less
According to institutional statistics, the annual growth rate of polysilicon imports in the first quarter of 2010 was about 65%. A domestic PV producer said that the PV terminal market is now almost twice as large as in 2008, and polysilicon production capacity has increased by at least 50% compared with 2008. Therefore, the supply and demand situation of polysilicon has begun to tighten.
The sharp rise in demand for polysilicon reflects the boom in the photovoltaic terminal market. Domestic PV companies also generally said that they are more optimistic about the performance of enterprises this year. The reason is that from PV modules to silicon wafers, products in the PV industry chain have experienced different price increases, and the gross profit margin of enterprises has also exceeded expectations. .
In contrast, the domestic PV market has not improved much. Experts expect that the price of PV Internet benchmarks that enterprises are concerned about will still be difficult to introduce in the short term. The determination of PV prices in the past two or three years will still be based on tenders.
According to sources close to the National Energy Administration, the ideal price of PV on-grid electricity generated by this year's bidding is around 0.9 yuan / kWh, at least it is difficult to exceed 1.15 yuan / kWh, because the National Development and Reform Commission has approved the approval of the Ningxia Power Group Sun. The temporary on-grid price of four photovoltaic power generation projects, such as the mountain photovoltaic power station, is 1.15 yuan per kWh.
Sun Guangbin, head of the China Electromechanical Chamber of Commerce's Photovoltaic Products Branch, said that compared with the current PV module market price, the market's psychological expectation for PV grid-connected electricity price is about 1.15 yuan / kWh this year is not too high, which may affect some PV companies. The enthusiasm for participating in domestic PV bidding, after all, the current international demand situation is good, companies do not have to bear low profits or even losses in the domestic market.
Relevant persons of Jiangxi Saiwei said that even if the foreign market is currently hot, the domestic PV market has not yet been fully launched, but domestic PV companies are still very active in participating in domestic PV bidding. After all, for domestic PV companies, the domestic market is indispensable. Simply relying on foreign markets is too risky for domestic PV companies. For example, foreign PV subsidy policies, foreign market fluctuations, and exchange rate policy changes will greatly affect corporate performance.
Electricity price deep game start
In addition to the fact that the on-grid tariff has become a major suspense in this round of PV concession bidding, which battery technology route may prevail in the future has become the focus of battery manufacturers. The reason is that the cost of different technology routes is quite different, which is directly related to the lowest electricity price that PV equipment manufacturers and power investors can bear together.
At present, the most important battery technology routes in the photovoltaic industry - crystalline silicon cells and thin film batteries, have their own advantages and disadvantages, thin film batteries have cost advantages, and the conversion rate of crystalline silicon cells is slightly better.
For the on-grid price forecast generated by the bidding, industry experts also said that if it is a combination of thin film battery manufacturers and investors, the on-grid price that can be reported may be lower than 1 yuan / kWh, because Thin film batteries are less expensive. Conversely, if it is a manufacturer of crystalline silicon cells, the reported on-grid price is generally more than 0.1 yuan / kWh higher than the thin film battery manufacturer.
Is there a difference in the quotation that may lead to the separation of the development prospects of the two technical routes? Wu Dacheng, deputy director of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that it is expected that crystalline silicon cells will occupy a more mainstream position during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, but long-term optimistic about the development prospects of thin-film batteries, because of low cost, thin-film batteries sooner or later Will dominate, but how long it takes to achieve such a goal depends on the speed of technological advancement.
A PV company official said that the PV on-grid price generated by the bid is actually the electricity price level after two years. The reason is that the PV power plant construction period specified in the bidding documents is two years. The current quotation of the company will fully estimate the market after two years. Cost and electricity price levels.
In the past two years, the technical level of the two technical routes will have their own development, and which technology can take the lead in making a substantial breakthrough will determine whether it will enter the fast lane of development.
In-depth price of on-grid electricity price is difficult to start PV companies
Electricity price forecast is quite different