There is still structural excess in the steel industry's capacity pressure easing

Since 2009, industrial policies have strictly controlled new capacity, and fixed assets investment in the steel industry has basically stopped growing, and the growth rate of new production capacity has dropped significantly. However, since the investment projects in 2007-2008 were put into production around 2010, the absolute capacity and capacity of new capacity are still at a high level. According to the existing public information, the newly built capacity in 2010 was 49.4 million tons, more than half of which was completed at the end of the year, and production will be formed in 2011; in 2011, the newly built capacity is expected to be 36 million tons. Considering the impact of eliminating backward production capacity, the capacity will be about 750 million tons by the end of 2010. It is expected that the production capacity will reach 777 million tons by the end of 2011.

Analysis of the relationship between GDP growth, fixed asset investment and crude steel production over the years, we found that crude oil per 10,000 yuan of GDP needs to decline slightly year by year, to about 1600 tons by the end of 2010, and China’s 39.8 trillion GDP at the end of 2010, if it grows annually More than 9%, the total GDP in 2011 reached 43.3 trillion, calculated according to the crude steel consumption per 10,000 yuan of crude steel consumption of about 1,500 tons, the demand for crude steel in 2011 is 649 million tons (China Steel Association predicts the apparent consumption of crude steel in China in 2010 about 6 Billion tons), the annual growth rate will reach 8.2%. In 2010, the scale of fixed assets investment was 27.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%. The investment in fixed assets of 100 million yuan required about 2,100 tons of crude steel. With the downward trend of technological progress and the adjustment of China's economic structure, it is estimated that in 2011, fixed assets investment per 10,000 yuan will consume 2,000 tons of crude steel. If it grows by 20% in 2011, the fixed asset investment scale in 2011 will be 3.336 billion yuan. In 2011, it will require about 667 million tons of crude steel, with an annual growth rate of more than 10%. We believe that China's crude steel consumption will increase by about 8% in 2011 and will reach 650 million tons.

According to the current economic development situation, the apparent consumption of crude steel in China will be around 650 million tons in 2011. With the improvement of the international economic situation in 2011, the export of steel (5153, -47.00, -0.90%) will be better than 2010. . If we assume that China's steel imports and exports in 2011 were 16 million tons and 48 million tons respectively, compared with 2010, the growth rate was 0% and 14.3% respectively, which calculated that China's 2011 crude steel output needs to reach 685 million tons. With a year-on-year increase of 9.25%, the capacity utilization rate is about 88%. However, due to the large amount of social stocks, supply is still greater than demand, and about 100 million tons of excess capacity will still put pressure on the industry.

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Dingnan Songyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. ,