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In the context of the current slowdown in the recovery of the world economy, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products will still face many difficulties in 2011. Under the influence of the slowdown in world economic growth, the acceleration of domestic structural adjustment, and the high base in the same period, the growth rate of China's mechanical and electrical products will slow down from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first half of 2011; in the second half of 2011, The world economy and the Chinese economy have stabilized, the level of international trade and investment has resumed, and the growth rate of imports and exports will gradually pick up.
Four difficulties
In the context of the current slowdown in the recovery of the world economy, in 2011, I will still face many difficulties in exporting mechanical and electrical products.
First of all, this replenishment process is coming to an end, and the growth momentum of demand in the international market is insufficient. Due to the lack of demand in the terminal market, the demand for “stock replenishment†in US and European companies has weakened, and the demand in overseas markets has shrunk.
In addition, the US real estate market is weak, capacity utilization is at a low level, unemployment rate is at a high level of 10%, consumer confidence index is much lower than the average of the past 10 years; some countries in Europe are affected by the debt crisis, the economic situation is worse; Japan revised After the August economic leading indicators continued to decline, the consumer confidence index fell for the third consecutive month.
The economic growth of emerging market countries is also affected by rising inflationary pressures and asset bubbles, and my external demand growth space is limited.
The data show that since the second half of 2010, the effects of the economic stimulus policies jointly introduced by the previous round of countries have weakened, and the world economy has entered a “low-speed growth period†from the “fast-rising period of policy-driven growthâ€.
Second, trade protectionism is heating up. In 2010, China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products organized 51 cases of trade friction and early warning cases, which were concentrated in Europe and Asia, involving dozens of communication equipment, household appliances, bicycles, motorcycles, auto parts and mechanical parts. Industry and products directly involve thousands of companies.
It is foreseeable that in 2011, the US and European countries, including some developing countries, will only increase their "two-reverse" investigations on our mechanical and electrical products for their own interests. In particular, trade frictions that may be encountered for energy products such as photovoltaics will increase.
Generally speaking, with the continuous enhancement of the independent innovation capability of Chinese enterprises in recent years, the export of high-tech products has continued to grow, and the trade friction of export products has gradually developed from a single product to a related industry, from labor-intensive products to high-tech products. A single legal level is geared towards institutional and institutional development. For example, in June 2010, the EU initiated anti-dumping, safeguard measures, and countervailing investigations on my data card; in October 2010, the US government applied for the US Steel Workers Federation to launch wind power, solar energy, high-efficiency batteries, and new energy vehicles. 301 investigation of policies and measures related to clean energy; in December 2010, at the request of the Steel Workers' Federation, the US government filed a lawsuit against the World Trade Organization for subsidies to Chinese wind energy manufacturers.
In the new year, in addition to wind energy, solar energy and other clean energy products may suffer more trade friction, mobile phones, repeaters, RF cables and other communications products are also likely to become the hardest hit by trade friction.
Furthermore, companies are facing increasing competitive pressures. Since the beginning of this year, many countries hope to boost their own real economy by increasing exports, and they have adopted corresponding policy measures.
The United States and Europe have successively introduced the "reward and restriction" measures, implemented "re-industrialization" and encouraged the industry to return. The Obama administration of the United States has proposed a five-year "export multiplier" plan. In the context of weak growth in demand in the international market, competition for countries to compete in the international market will become more intense.
Finally, the comprehensive operating costs of the company continue to rise. At present, the growth rate of China's domestic investment is gradually falling from a high level; the external side is facing a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, causing Japan, South Korea, Brazil and other countries to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The appreciation of the RMB is expected to affect the company's orders, and squeeze the profits of enterprises, together with domestic labor and raw materials. As the cost rises, the pressure on business operations rises.
Import and export growth will gradually pick up
Taking into account various factors, China's foreign trade will continue to grow in 2011, but the growth rate will fall back. Under the influence of the slowdown in world economic growth, the acceleration of domestic structural adjustment, and the high base in the same period, the growth rate of China's mechanical and electrical products will slow down from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first half of 2011; in the second half of 2011, The world economy and the Chinese economy have stabilized, the level of international trade and investment has resumed, and the growth rate of imports and exports will gradually pick up.
2011 is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan for China's national economic and social development. The economy will maintain steady growth. The country will adopt a series of policies to expand domestic demand. The state will pay more attention to implementing the trade diversification strategy and continue to strengthen Trade between emerging market countries and regions.
In addition, the overall comparative advantages of China's mechanical and electrical products are still obvious, and the export products cover a wide range. From labor-intensive machinery products with obvious traditional advantages to high-tech products with high technical content, the ability to resist external fluctuations and diversify risks is strong. Conducive to maintaining overall stability of exports.
It is estimated that the total export value of our mechanical and electrical products will increase by about 15% compared with 2010 for the whole year of 2011. From the perspective of trade methods, China's trade production mainly comes from processing trade, and most of the products that implement processing trade are mechanical and electrical products. According to the proportion of processing trade in electromechanical trade, my electromechanical surplus will narrow to 160 billion US dollars in 2011. about.
2011 China's hardware and electrical products import and export growth will gradually pick up
In 2011, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products developed steadily and faced many favorable conditions. The world economy is slowly recovering, and emerging economies are recovering better. According to the World Bank, global trade in goods increased by 6.8% in 2011, and the history of electromechanical trade has been higher than the growth rate of global trade.