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First, the growth of demand in foreign markets has slowed down.
In the first half of the year, export orders were “spurtingâ€, which did not indicate that the foreign market had fully recovered.
According to a recent statistics released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.1% in June, and has continued to fall since April. In June, it fell by 1.8 compared with May. The percentage point is 3.6 percentage points lower than that in April (see Figure 1 below), which means that although the economy is still growing, the growth rate has started to drop sharply since April, and it has begun to approach the 50% balance point of the economic strength of the economy. Growth is slowing.
In addition, the recently released data show that the economic prospects of Europe and the United States face a large downside risk, especially the weakening of inventory replenishment. May-June, Philadelphia and New York PMI new orders and shipping index fell sharply from March to April, and the inventory expectations index fell for two consecutive months, the US restocking effect slowed significantly; and the euro zone in June The PMI is 55.6, slightly lower than May. As for the soaring export orders in the first half of the year, it is likely that foreign importers will have too much inventory, the market will be saturated, and it will take time to digest the stocks. At the same time, the European debt crisis will further affect the growth of demand in the European market in the future, which will adversely affect the export of Chinese fasteners.
Second, the RMB will appreciate in the second half of the year or restart.
Although the renminbi has repeatedly resisted the internationally required appreciation pressure and strived to maintain the relative stability of the exchange rate, even if “everything starts to come outâ€, the appreciation of the renminbi will always be an inevitable trend. "From this year's point of view, the most likely appreciation is around 3%." The International Business Department of the ICBC Branch said. In addition, the European debt crisis may also cause a large depreciation of the euro, causing the appreciation of the renminbi against the euro, thus affecting China's exports to the euro zone.
"If the renminbi appreciates 15% against the euro, China's exports to the euro zone will fall by about 10 percentage points, which means that China's overall exports will fall by 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points. If other countries are already aware of the US dollar, The devaluation, and thus the impact on China’s exports may be even greater." Lu Zhengwei, senior economist at Industrial Bank, said that.
The third is the cost factor.
Cost factors also have a certain impact on the future export of fasteners. Due to inflation, domestic raw material prices have risen, and wages of workers have risen, greatly increasing the manufacturing costs of Chinese fasteners. Although the purchase price index was 51.3% in June, it was 7.6 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that inflationary pressures eased and corporate cost pressures eased. However, inflationary pressures still exist. Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, believes that all industries are facing a period of double pressure of inventory and cost. For fastener companies, although steel prices have recently fallen, but when steel prices bottomed out, fluctuations in prices of raw materials such as steel still affect each of their nerves.
Therefore, the situation in the second half of this year is particularly complicated, and the above-mentioned uncertain factors make the export of fasteners in the future have great risks. It is expected that the growth rate of China's fastener exports will slow down or slow down in the second half of the year.
China's fastener export situation forecast in the second half of the year
The trend of China's fastener export situation in the second half of the year, the impact of the international environment is very large. Ms. Chang Si’an, the general manager of Golden Spider and the head of the Organizing Committee of the 4th Guangzhou Fasteners Trade Fair, pointed out: “The future export situation of China’s fasteners mainly depends on foreign market demand, RMB exchange rate changes, European debt crisis, and cost. The contest of various factors such as pressure."