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5 trillion plans to break
The long-awaited development plan for emerging energy industries has entered the final approval stage after many changes and improvements, and is expected to be officially launched in the third quarter of this year. On July 20, at the energy economic situation conference in the first half of 2010, Jiang Bing, director of the Planning and Development Department of the National Energy Administration, revealed that the development plan for the emerging energy industry has been completed and is being submitted to the State Council for approval according to relevant procedures.
In fact, the introduction of the development plan for the emerging energy industry was early in the expectation of all parties in the market, but the 5 trillion investment plan that Jiang Bing first proposed at the meeting still triggered the shock of the entire A-share market. According to Jiang Bing, the plan is to increase the direct investment of 5 trillion yuan in the open market to attract domestic and foreign investment in the decade from 2011 to 2020, and develop the emerging energy industry in the Mainland. Insiders pointed out that if the calculation of the related industries is carried out, the final development scale of the overall new energy industry is likely to reach several trillion.
Jiang Bing said that unlike the “new energy plan†previously reported by the media, the emerging energy industry development plan includes not only wind energy, hydropower and nuclear power, but also the upgrading of traditional energy sources. The plan is mainly for new energy and renewable energy such as advanced nuclear energy, wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, unconventional natural gas, and development and utilization of emerging energy, clean coal, smart grid, distributed energy, and vehicle. The industrial application of new energy technologies such as new energy has been clearly deployed.
It should be pointed out that just as the development plan of the emerging energy industry is in urgent need of release, China's "12th Five-Year Plan" energy development plan is also being prepared. According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, by 2020, the ratio of non-fossil energy to primary energy consumption will reach about 15%, and the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 40% to 45% compared with 2005. It needs to be undertaken by the development plan of the emerging energy industry, and it also reflects the intensity of the implementation of the plan to a certain extent.
A strategist said that China's economic growth has long relied on a large amount of resources and capital investment. With the rising cost of production materials, the constraints of resources and environment, and the changes in the international competition pattern, the original development model urgently needs improvement. It is of great significance to invest 5 trillion yuan in the construction of emerging industries.
Good or medium to long term
Undoubtedly, when the 5 trillion policy of the new energy industry came out of the official mouth, a question appeared in the minds of almost all investors. In 2008, the 4 trillion economic stimulus policy that was born in the world will be certified. The index has been pushed from 1664 points to 3478 points. When the 5 trillion investment plan that is ready to go out focuses on the emerging energy industry, what kind of waves will be set up in the A-share market?
From the market performance point of view, just after the good news, on July 21, including China Nuclear Technology (000777, closing price of 20.65 yuan), CSG A (000012, closing price of 11.79 yuan), Goldwind Technology (002202, closing price of 18.50 New energy concept stocks such as Yuan) and Tianwei Baobian (600550, closing price of 22.49 yuan) soared in early trading. However, after a brief madness, market funds tend to be rational, and most of the new energy concept stocks have fallen back, leaving a long upper shadow line.
Insiders pointed out that although the 5 trillion data is exciting, it blindly equates it with the 4 trillion economic stimulus policy, and even infers its influence from the digital and investment scope will be stronger than 4 trillion. Or think that the 5 trillion investment plan marks the arrival of a new round of bull market is not accurate, because there is a huge difference between the two, 5 trillion investment is more in the medium and long term.
On the one hand, Jiang Bing’s 5 trillion investment planning period is from 2011 to 2020. The time span is as long as 10 years, and the average investment is about 500 billion yuan. The effect is not obvious in the short term; On the one hand, the 4 trillion policy was launched in 2008 to stimulate the economic recovery and recovery. This time, the 5 trillion investment plan is more to promote industrial restructuring and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. From this point of analysis, the 5 trillion investment plan in the short-term stimulus to the economy, the promotion of A shares will be weaker than the 4 trillion policy, more favorable is in the medium and long term.
Investment path analysis
Even if the 5 trillion investment plan has limited influence on the market in the short term, it cannot deny the confidence that the plan brings to the medium-term market. Zhou Tao, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, said that since the introduction of the new energy revitalization plan in early 2009, the market has been waiting for a long time and it has already been exhausted. However, the time when government officials reported on the emerging energy revitalization plan to the State Council is close to the historical low valuation. In the context of a round of rebounds, the market for new energy is bound to be hot.
There is no doubt that the investment opportunities contained in the 5 trillion investment are huge. According to the information disclosed by Jiang Bing at the meeting, the content of the plan is “mainly for new energy and renewable energy such as advanced nuclear energy, wind energy and solar energy, and clearly deployed the industrial application of new energy technologies such as new energy for vehiclesâ€. Naturally became the stock selection program of the 5 trillion concept stocks before the introduction of the policy, and it has also become the focus of research in many industry insiders.
According to the analysis of Great Wall Securities, in accordance with the energy development plan formulated by China, it has become an inevitable choice to greatly improve the development and supply capacity of nuclear power and renewable energy. About 60% of the 5 trillion investment will be used for investment in new energy such as nuclear power, wind power and solar energy, and 40% of the funds will be used for traditional energy upgrades. The total investment of the power grid is about 500 billion yuan. Automobile subsidies may reach 1 trillion yuan, while distributed energy and clean coal utilization are about 500 billion yuan.
Guoyuan Securities pointed out that a huge investment of up to 5 trillion yuan will greatly promote the development of related industries, especially core industries such as nuclear energy, wind energy, photovoltaic, clean coal, smart grid, and new energy for vehicles will usher in a huge market space. In the sub-sectors of the new energy industry, the focus is on natural gas and wind power.
New energy industry planning is calling for "5 trillion" or 掀 investment waves
In 2008, the 4 trillion economic stimulus policy that was born in the world pushed the Shanghai Composite Index from 1664 to 3,478. Now, the 5 trillion investment plan that is eager to focus on the emerging energy industry will set off a huge wave in the A-share market. Which listed companies will be the lucky ones in this investment feast?