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Experts say China has entered the threshold of the middle-class developed countries
Economic experts from China recently gathered in New York to discuss the remarkable transformation their nation has undergone over the past decade. They highlighted how China has achieved unprecedented economic growth since the establishment of the People's Republic, transitioning from a developing nation to a threshold country with moderate development status. Looking ahead, they predict that within the next ten years, China could officially join the ranks of fully developed nations.
From 2003 to 2011, China’s GDP expanded at an average annual rate of 10.7%. By 2011, its total GDP had reached 47.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.5-fold increase compared to 2002. This rapid growth solidified China’s position as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010. During the same year, per capita GDP stood at 35,000 yuan, or $5,432 when converted via the average exchange rate, placing China within the "upper-middle-income" bracket according to World Bank standards.
Mao Zhenhua, Director of the Economic Research Institute at Renmin University of China, emphasized that China’s average growth rate during this period was an impressive 10.7%, marking one of the fastest developmental epochs in its history. He noted that during this time, China became both the world’s second-largest economy and the leading exporter of goods. Factors such as the peak of its demographic dividend, rapid urbanization, technological advancements, and a stable global environment contributed significantly to this progress.
However, Mao Zhenhua pointed out that challenges lie ahead. Rising labor costs, shifting demographics, diminishing demographic dividends, and evolving international trade dynamics mean that the traditional drivers of China’s rapid growth are weakening. To sustain progress, China must focus more on expanding its domestic market and increasing household consumption as a percentage of GDP.
Looking forward, China is expected to transition into a "normal" developed country, characterized by a stronger emphasis on social welfare, higher labor costs, and a shift toward reliance on internal consumer markets. While this adjustment may result in slower overall growth rates, it will help reduce the reliance on export-driven trade and position China as the world’s largest economy in the long term.
According to recent projections, China might surpass the U.S. as the top global economy between 2019 and 2022. Currently, developed nations recognized by the UN include countries like the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada, among others. These countries typically exhibit advanced technology, high living standards, and robust industrial capabilities.
As China continues to evolve, balancing domestic consumption with global engagement will be crucial. The nation’s journey toward sustained prosperity reflects not only its ambition but also its ability to adapt to a changing world order.