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NDRC expects that China's energy supply and demand situation will become tighter next year
International Power Network News: At the 2012 China Energy Service Industry Summit, held on the 19th, Dai Yande, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute, highlighted a shift in the country's energy supply and demand dynamics. He noted that during the first three quarters of this year, the overall macroeconomic slowdown led to a more relaxed energy situation compared to previous years. However, he warned that as the economy continues to recover in 2013, particularly with the acceleration of urbanization, energy demand is expected to rise sharply, potentially returning to a tighter balance by the second half of the year.
Dai explained that the decline in high-energy-consuming industries and reduced impact from extreme weather conditions contributed to slower energy consumption growth. With ample energy resources available, the supply-demand gap has eased in recent years. He further stated that the growth in major energy sources, such as electricity, is projected to be lower than the levels seen during the 2008–2009 financial crisis, marking a historic low.
Looking ahead, Dai pointed out that as the economy begins to stabilize in the fourth quarter of this year, factors like accommodative monetary policies and increased corporate investment will likely lead to a recovery in industrial production. This, in turn, will drive up energy demand. While energy demand may remain relatively loose in the first half of 2013, he expects a significant increase in coal, electricity, and oil and gas consumption starting in the second half, signaling a return to a tighter energy market.
This tightening scenario brings greater pressure for energy conservation and emissions reduction, but also opens new opportunities for the energy-saving industry. Dai estimated that China’s total energy consumption could reach 5.3 billion tons of standard coal by 2020. Over the next eight years, this would mean an additional 800 million tons of standard coal in energy use, with 100 million tons added annually. These trends are expected to significantly benefit the growing energy-saving sector.
According to recent data, the national energy-saving service industry reached a value of 125 billion yuan by the end of 2011. With government plans in place, the sector is expected to grow rapidly, reaching 300 billion yuan by 2015, at an average annual growth rate of 35%. This indicates strong potential for continued expansion and development in the coming years.