RMB within ten years or become an international reserve currency

Looking at China, Voice of America , senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, USA, Arvind Subramaniah believes that after leading the world economy for three centuries, the West will soon Under the increasingly strong rise of China, it seems to be eclipsed. The renminbi may replace the dollar in the next 10 years and become the world's major reserve currency. Along with the expansion of China's economic scale, the exchange rate mechanism of the Chinese renminbi is constantly being reformed and improved. Since China abandoned its peg to the single dollar exchange rate system in July 2005, the exchange rate of the renminbi has been exchanged from about $8.20 at the time of the US dollar to about 6.3 yuan. At the same time, China is gradually promoting the internationalization of the renminbi. The Financial Times said that not long ago, China officially recognized London as one of the offshore trading centers of the renminbi, indicating that the renminbi is taking another step toward liberalization and internationalization. Monetary analysts are therefore expected to shorten the time for the full free exchange of RMB. Subramanian said that the internationalization of the renminbi will eventually become an international reserve currency. In terms of technology, the renminbi must be freely convertible. China's financial system should be more open, but the most important thing is the political will of the Chinese government. He said: "But the most important condition is that there must be political will to manage the cost of the internationalization of the renminbi. If the renminbi is internationalized, the financial system must be reformed and the renminbi exchange rate should be further appreciated. Therefore, there must be political will to overcome Any possible opposition and resistance.” The benefits brought about by the internationalization of the RMB will be obvious, including the higher efficiency of the financial system; the economic growth model will be dominated by domestic demand rather than external demand; inflation will be further suppressed. However, measures such as expanding domestic demand, reducing exports, and appreciating the renminbi will cause tremendous pressure on exporting companies, a large number of employees will be laid off, and factories and enterprises will close down. Subramanian said that when the United Kingdom dominates the world, the pound is an international currency; when the United States dominates the world, the dollar is the international reserve currency; will China be different in the future if China dominates the world?

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