China's photovoltaic future after the "scarred bones" is still in the international market

Abstract The relationship between solar energy and human beings has always been inseparable. Nowadays, in the shadow of the energy crisis, the development and utilization of clean and renewable solar energy has brought precious hope to the future of mankind. It also makes people pay more attention to the development of solar photovoltaic power generation. But in the business world, this...
The relationship between solar energy and human beings has always been inseparable. Nowadays, in the shadow of the energy crisis, the development and utilization of clean and renewable solar energy has brought precious hope to the future of mankind. It also makes people pay more attention to the development of solar photovoltaic power generation. But in the business world, behind this beautiful hope has also rolled up the smoke that makes people marvel.

As the world's largest PV market, the development of China's PV industry has undergone tremendous changes, and among them, the companies have also stumbled several times. After experiencing the impact of “storm”, “rich”, “plunge”, “price war” and “double anti-war”, the prospects of China's PV industry are so uncertain and unclear.

Policy support, distributed photovoltaic will super-ground power station

When the overseas development of China's PV industry was frustrated, everyone agreed on a problem: to immediately start the domestic distributed PV market. In the past two years, the state has intensively introduced a number of policies to support the photovoltaic industry. In the near term, in addition to local-specific photovoltaic subsidies, on August 4, the National Energy Administration also held a site meeting of national distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration applications, intended to systematically solve the key problems that currently restrict the distributed market.

According to Wu Xinxiong’s statement at the exchange meeting, the goal of ensuring that China’s photovoltaic power generation grid-connected capacity reached 13 GW was much higher than his previous 10 GW installed target.

It is reported that the new policy of distributed photovoltaics will be introduced soon. The new deal will solve two major problems of distributed photovoltaic power generation: financing and electricity charges.

Whether in Europe or at home, photovoltaic power generation starts from local power stations, but there are still few desert or non-agricultural resources on the ground, so it is still necessary to get on the roof. The so-called distributed is actually the roof, the small is the family roof, and the big one is the roof of the industrial plant. With the improvement of application technology and the improvement of people's cognition, coupled with the blessing of national policies, the scale of distributed PV installed capacity will become larger and larger. “I think distributed power plants will reach more than 60%, and terrestrial power plants will be less than 40%. From the experience of foreign development, there are more enterprises that are mainly oriented to distributed power generation.” Yang Huaijin, CEO of Hairun Photovoltaic, was accepted as a reporter. Said in the interview.

Don't be afraid of double opposition, the international market is still the future of China.

In January of this year, the United States once again launched a second "double-reverse" investigation aimed at comprehensively and strictly restricting China's export of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products to the United States. Not only that, but the EU and the United States have successively launched the "double opposition", and India and Australia have also joined in the fight for trade.

On June 3, Beijing time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it had initially ruled that China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States received excessive government subsidies, ranging from 18.56% to 35.21%. On July 25, the US Department of Commerce announced the preliminary results of China's PV products, and found that there were dumping behaviors of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China and Taiwan. The dumping margin of mainland China products was 26.33% to 165.04%. Taiwan products The dumping margin ranges from 27.59% to 44.18%. The US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission will make final decisions at the end of 2014 and early 2015.

After the US Department of Commerce announced the "double-reverse" preliminary ruling results, the high-ranking people in the industry were "fighting". This matter is no less than last year's "double opposition" in Europe, and undoubtedly caused a big blow to the PV export enterprises that created nearly 1.5 billion US dollars in the mainland and Taiwan in 2013.

The United States and the European Union have used "double opposition" to curb the pace of China's photovoltaics overseas. No matter what kind of psychology, this kind of trade war is inevitably hurt, but Chinese companies need not be afraid. "Double-reverse" will affect the entire industry, but for a company, it may not affect. The EU is an early PV application market. In the past, almost 90% of the PV market was in the EU, but now the EU market only accounts for 28%, the Chinese market has increased to 30%, the US market is 14%, and the East Asian market accounts for 27%. Other markets account for 1%. It can be seen that the EU's share in the market has been gradually narrowing, while the proportion of East Asia and other emerging markets is increasing. One of the main reasons for this large shift is manufacturing in China. As Yang Huaijin said: "We don't have to hang on the tree in the EU and the US. The international market is a sea, too big."

In Yang Huaijin's view, the international market is China's future. "Everyone in the domestic market is doing it and getting a relationship, but beyond the country, there are more factors. In terms of market size, the domestic market scale. Although it is very large, compared to the international market, especially the future international market, the Chinese market is 'Yangtze River' and 'Yellow River', and the international market is 'Ocean'."

Be wary of "price war"

The overseas market has suffered setbacks and domestic policies have been favorable. Such an environment has stimulated the potential of the photovoltaic industry, allowing more companies to share a piece of the pie, and the phenomenon of low-cost market grabbing has become commonplace. More and more companies and investors have entered the industry of building power stations, and many companies are investing more in distributed generation. This is a great joy to the PV promotion boom, and can't help but worry about whether there will be a “price war” like PV modules in the future. In order to seize market share, do not hesitate to break the rules and fight low prices.

"This trend must be there, because it is not a mysterious business model, and you can't stop others from doing the same thing. However, although everyone can do things, everyone has different methods and methods. The effect is not necessarily the same." For the "price war", Yang Huaijin is not surprised.

Photovoltaic pioneers like him, in the era of the times, from the pioneers of more than a decade ago to today, the stress tests experienced and encountered have been integrated into the majestic background of the development of China's photovoltaic industry. But not everyone can be so light and rational.

Looking back on the ups and downs of the industry in the past few years, the support and driving role of interests in the development of the photovoltaic industry cannot be ignored. The early stage of the photovoltaic industry was touted by the "profitability", and later it was disgusted because of "losing money." When the photovoltaic industry is unpopular, it has not been optimistic, especially the so-called calm entrepreneurs who are not optimistic. Many people are confused in this industry, but no one has thought that Germany suddenly introduced policies to use new energy, especially Photovoltaic new energy makes this unpopular industry overnight. As a result, companies have entered the industry and are crowded with blood.

Many people do the same thing, but the results may be very different. Perhaps the industry is beginning to fall into a trough, or perhaps because of its poor management, so when an industry's money is not so good, some people will start to hate and start to sing.

In fact, the cake is only so big, so many people are rushing to eat, there is no fair equalization, all rely on their own "grab", even if they can not eat, can not deny the taste of the cake. Rational treatment is too important! In the words of Yang Huaijin: "For those who have been particularly fond of the photovoltaic industry in the past, it is not as good as he imagined. For those who are particularly disgusted with the photovoltaic industry during the trough, it is also the industry, because this industry is so it is good."

I have a certain amount of rules. “This is really a very good industry.” Yang Huaijin always praises photovoltaics from the heart. “From my perspective, I see that there is only one main line in this industry: this industry is a new energy with great development prospects. Industry, this industry has always been an industry that is vigorous and can develop upwards. I believe that even after more than a decade of development, even if the industry’s output in China has increased tens of thousands of times, I still think it is still in the early stage of development. At the stage, the development space is very large. I hope that everyone can calmly deal with this industry so that they can develop healthily."

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