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With the recent catastrophe of the US acquisition of KUKA and Foxconn Kunshan factory layoffs of 60,000, China has become the world's largest industrial robot market. The five-year development plan for the Chinese robot industry points out that by 2020, the annual output of self-owned brand industrial robots will reach 100,000 units. Last year, the output of China's own-brand industrial robots was 22,257, and the growth space was still very large.
Industry chain is gradually forming
Driven by the automation degree and the market transformation of the stock market, the growth space of the industrial robot market is far from reaching the ceiling, and the potential is huge.
Related industrial robot manufacturers have also performed well. The "First Financial Daily" reporter combed the semi-annual reports of major enterprises and found that the overall performance of the robot industry in the first half of this year was better than that of the same period of last year, and the performance of most listed companies achieved steady and sustained growth. Among them, the main domestic industrial robot enterprises Xinsong, Eston and Xinshida's robot business revenue increased by 28%, 40% and 307% respectively in the first half of the year.
The optimistic forecast of market space has led many robot companies to invest in capacity expansion. According to the incomplete statistics of the reporters of China Business News, following the 2015 fund raising of RMB 3 billion by Xinsong Zengfa, Eston also raised about RMB 1 billion in September 2016 to be in 2020. The robot production capacity has expanded to 10,000 units, while Xinsong has 15,000 units, which is close to the planned production capacity of 15,000, 12,000 and 10,000 units in China, such as ABB, Yaskawa Electric and KUKA.
The reporter visited and found that under the support of subsidies and other policies, the Chinese robot industry chain is gradually taking shape, and a number of key enterprises have begun to emerge, and the middle and low-end markets in various fields have also formed certain competitiveness.
"Small scattered" problem
Although the development speed is staggering, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities Research believes that these companies are mainly oriented to local industrial enterprise customers, and currently cannot compete with multinational companies. Huang Yixiong, chief engineer of Changtai Robot Co., Ltd., told the reporter of China Business News that the Chinese robot industry is generally characterized by scattered, small and weak, and there is still a long way to go in the future.
Not only in scale, China's industrial robot industry also has a big gap in core technology to be compensated. According to the "First Financial Daily" reporters, at present, among the world's major patent applicants in the industrial robot industry, Japan's Yaskawa Electric Corporation and Fanuc Corporation rank the top two in the world with 5,823 and 45,12 patent applications respectively. Companies such as Samsung, Hitachi, Honda, Sony, KUKA, and Siemens are close behind.
Among the top 15 global patent applicants, Japanese companies have occupied 11 seats. It can be seen that Japan has strong R&D capabilities in the field of industrial robots and has obvious competitive advantages in patent technology. In the ranking of the top 15 related patent applications in the world, none of the domestic patent applicants in China has listed, indicating that there is a clear gap in the technical strength between Chinese domestic companies and international giants.
According to the research of Analysys think tank, the industrial robots in Japan and Germany are leading the world. Among them, Japan has strong technical barriers in the research and development of key components of industrial robots (reducers, servo motors, etc.). German industrial robots have certain advantages in raw materials, body parts and system integration. Although China's industrial robots are developing rapidly, they are still in the downstream of the industrial chain of industrial robot production. Most manufacturers undertake low-value work such as secondary development of systems, customized components and after-sales services.
A senior executive of KUKA Industries also told this reporter that due to the gap in the technology of core components such as reducers and servos, domestic manufacturers often have high dependence on international manufacturers, and the purchase premium is very serious, which directly binds. A further breakthrough in China's industrial robot industry.
Although facing technical and scale bottlenecks, the robot industry has rapidly warmed up in China in recent years. According to a survey conducted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in early 2016, there are more than 800 companies involved in robot production and integrated applications in China. From 2014 to 2015, various local governments have successively issued nearly 80 policies related to the development of the robot industry, and 42 robot-related industrial parks have been built or proposed nationwide.
Yao Zhijun, secretary-general of China National Robot Testing and Evaluation Center, recently pointed out that the robot industry has overheating concerns. However, with the huge market potential temptation and the huge financial support of local governments, in order to cut the biggest cake to seize market opportunities, local companies have begun to enter the field of industrial robots.
For example, in an environment of high macroeconomic pressure, Midea and Gree's home appliance giants are seeking new business growth points. Li Guolin, vice president of Midea Group's home air conditioning business unit, said that Midea began to introduce robots in 2011, and in 2012 set up an automation design and manufacturing team responsible for the independent research and development, manufacturing, installation, maintenance and maintenance of the entire group of robots. Gree Group announced that it has launched the strategy of “independent research and development of robots†since 2012, and has successively established departments such as automation office, automation technology research institute and automation equipment manufacturing department. However, the two officially announced their entry into the robotics industry after August 2015.
The two home appliance giants have chosen different robot development strategies. Gree advocates independent research and development of robots and focuses on industrial robots. At present, it has developed products in more than 10 fields, including industrial robots, intelligent AGVs, injection robots, and large-scale automation lines. Midea took the acquisition cooperation route, and joined forces with Yaskawa in Japan, acquired KUKA in Germany, and invested in industrial robot manufacturer Eft, to improve its technological competitiveness by means of capital.
The former manager of the Muse robot, Tu Yu, told this reporter that the general acquisition of the KUKA in the United States may become more frequent in the future. However, in the short term, domestic robots will have to go to the high end. Due to the lack of their own core technologies, it is still far from the grand plan to support China's manufacturing 2025.
In fact, although the market is hot, domestic robot companies are facing the dilemma of two-way extrusion at home and abroad. On the one hand, foreign brands have cut the biggest piece of cake in the Chinese market, and have formed an overwhelming advantage for domestic robots in terms of technology and parts costs. On the other hand, under the support policies such as government subsidies, China has emerged in a short period of time. Nearly a thousand robot companies, repeated construction, vicious competition, fraudulent subsidies and other chaos.
Big change in application mode
The argument that robots will wipe out the entire manufacturing industry sounds nervous. Related articles such as "How do you defend your work when the robot begins to take over?" "Do your work be replaced by robots?" and other related articles have intensified this worry.
However, in reality, there is a big gap between the minimal presence of robotic applications in the Chinese market and the “machine substitution†that people often hear. Qu Daokui, president of Xinsong Robots, said at the recent Zhizhi Summit of the Yangtze River Delta that robots have been in development for more than half a century, and now there are only about 2 million units in the world. From the perspective of robot density, the world average is 60%. China only reaches about 31%. From the perspective of replacement rate, 99.38% of the current enterprises are still manual operations, 99.7% in China have not been replaced, and the replacement is only a few tenths of a percent, which can almost be ignored.
Qu Daokui believes that the reason is that the robots currently on the market are more limited by the degree of intelligence, and these robots can not fully meet the needs of human beings.
The robot is essentially a kind of machine, but because the term "person" is added to the title, it is often hoped by human beings to have a higher level of intelligence. Qu Daokui believes that the mind is smart, the head can think, the hand must be able to work, the eyes and ears should be good, the ability to speak and the road to run fast, this is the state that the robot will finally present. However, in the industrial field, many robots are mostly robotic arms, and their working ability is very limited.
The pain point of the industry is precisely the opportunity to breed the blue ocean of the market. With the rapid development of intelligent equipment, the advantages and functions of industrial robots in the global manufacturing industry will become more prominent. At the same time, industrial robots are in a pioneering position, whether it is Industrial 4.0 or the intelligent transformation of global enterprises.
Today's robots are more about complex, advanced, and diverse environments. This has changed dramatically compared to the previous robotic environment.
Moreover, there are also big changes in the application mode of robots. Traditional robots are considered to be a special kind of equipment. Its market demand is more concentrated on quality and efficiency, and modern industrial systems with higher integration and intelligence. In the past, the market positioning of industrial robots is far from what can be imagined in the past. It is a metaphor for the image: traditional robots are like the ingredients in the cooking, and today's robots are all satisfied with some substitution for the human labor. .
Therefore, Qu Daokui believes that the complex of man and robot, it must transcend the physical ability of human beings, surpass human beings, and at the same time surpass the intelligent ability of the machine. This is the development direction of the future robot, and it is also a big development robot in the future. breakthrough.
In the future, robots will have a vast space and a huge market only by continuously enriching the types of robots and integrating the functions, performance and flexibility of robots. “The second machine revolution represented by digital technology and robots will change the world,†Qu Daokui said.
China's industrial robot industry chain is gradually formed but generally scattered, small, weak
Abstract With the industrial transformation and upgrading of China's industry, rising labor costs and lowering of robot production costs, the domestic robot industry is facing an accelerated growth inflection point. Unlike the service robots, which are still in the domestic market, the industrial robots are currently entering the stage of full-scale popularization. With...
With China's industrial transformation and upgrading, rising labor costs and lowering of robot production costs, the domestic robot industry is facing an inflection point of accelerated growth. Unlike the service robots, which are still in the domestic market, the industrial robots are currently entering the stage of full-scale popularization.