The future degree of butadiene may rise

It is understood that butadiene in November 2012 ushered in the biggest decline since the second half. Although the current price of butadiene is still being explored, with the upgrading of the ethylene cracking process, the production of butadiene will become increasingly scarce, and its future prosperity may increase.

According to the monitoring of business club prices, the price of butadiene fell from the high price of RMB 27,100/t at the beginning of this year to the current RMB 12,000/t, which was a drop of more than 55%. In November alone, the drop in butadiene was Up to 20.61%. Business Society chemical industry analyst Xu Yuting told the Securities Times reporter that the drop in butadiene this year was expected. Downstream demand was the main reason for the sharp drop in butadiene prices.

According to reports, butadiene downstream products include styrene butadiene rubber, neoprene, butadiene rubber and other synthetic rubber, and synthetic rubber is the main raw material for the manufacture of tires. At present, China's annual tire production accounts for about one-fourth of the world's total tire production. It is the world’s largest tire manufacturing and exporting country. However, the EU’s official implementation of the green tire labeling bill in November caused a Heavy blow. According to the standards of the Act, nearly half of the tires exported by China to the European Union are not up to standard. The introduction of the tire labeling method has had a serious impact on the tire industry in China and has been transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain.

At present, the price of butadiene is almost the same as the high point of the year, but Xu Yuting believes that the production cost of butadiene is between 9,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan. Therefore, there is still room for downside in theory.

Although butadiene prices have been falling, there are still industry insiders who are optimistic about the long-term of this product based on the production process and production capacity of butadiene. Qi Xiang Tengda (002408) securities affairs representative Liu Bing told reporters that butadiene is mainly derived from the naphtha cracking ethylene by-product, so if you want to increase production of butadiene, unless there is a large ethylene plant put into production, And it must be a naphtha cracking method. Currently, only petrochemical companies such as PetroChina (601857) and Sinopec (600028) have such capabilities. Therefore, butadiene is relatively stable in terms of its production capacity, and it is unlikely that there will be excess capacity.

In addition, in North America and the Middle East, there is a new process for cracking ethylene, which is cracking ethylene with shale gas and petroleum gas, and the cost is reduced by nearly half than the current naphtha method, but this new process will not be a byproduct of Because of this, Liu Bing predicts that butadiene production will become scarcer in the future with the phase-out of naphtha cracking ethylene.

Qixiang Tengda completed and commissioned a butadiene project with an annual output of 100,000 tons in June of this year, becoming the main force of the company's third-quarter growth. Qi Xiang Tengda third quarter report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.141 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 69.9%; to achieve the net profit attributable to the parent company of 131 million yuan, an increase of 21.1%.

Zhang Weibao, the first entrepreneurial analyst, told reporters that at present, China's synthetic rubber is more dependent on imports, and its self-sufficiency rate is very low. With the increase in domestic synthetic rubber production in recent years, it is expected to boost demand for butadiene in the future.