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Shi Limin, executive deputy secretary-general of the New Energy Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, told reporters that the rush to install power stations before the downward adjustment of PV power generation prices was the main reason for the significant increase in new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the first half of the year.
"Not only for the more than expected installation in the first half of the year, but also for the uncertainty of the second half of the year." Ding Wenlei, chairman of the airline solar technology company, used "mixed and mixed" to describe the current general mentality of the photovoltaic industry.
Phenomenon: rushing to install the tide to promote the vigorous development of photovoltaic
June 30 (hereinafter referred to as "6•30") was originally a very common mid-year boundary, but affected by the tariff cut policy, this year's "6•30" is a sensitive figure for PV companies. . According to the "Notice on Improving the Electricity Price Policy for Onshore Wind Power Photovoltaic Power Generation" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission last year, before this year, the photovoltaic power generation projects that were scheduled for annual scale management will not be completed by grid connection before June 30 this year. A new electricity price standard will be implemented. This means that the subsidies for photovoltaic power stations in Class I, II and III resource areas will be reduced by 0.1 yuan, 0.07 yuan and 0.02 yuan respectively.
The reduction in subsidies means that the revenues are reduced. Therefore, many enterprises are rushing to install power stations before the price of on-grid electricity is lowered. This is the main reason for the significant increase in new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the first half of the year. At the same time, this rush to install the tide has also directly promoted the vigorous development of China's monocrystalline silicon market.
It is understood that in the first half of this year, Longji shares have signed investment intentions with Lijiang City, Baoshan City and Chuxiong Prefecture of Yunnan Province to form a total of 10 GW of monocrystalline silicon rods and monocrystalline silicon wafers. The subsidiary of Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. is located in Inner Mongolia. Photovoltaic Materials Co., Ltd. plans to add 8 GW of single crystal silicon materials and monocrystalline silicon wafer projects.
Not only does monocrystalline silicon have a good momentum of development, but most polysilicon producers are fully sold and even in short supply. The data shows that in the first half of this year, China's polysilicon production reached 95,000 tons, an increase of 28.4% year-on-year, and the import volume was about 60,000 tons. The gross profit rate of major enterprises was over 20%.
Affected by the domestic application market in the first half of the year, other manufacturing sectors have similar situations. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, PV module production in the first half of 2016 was approximately 27 GW, an increase of 37.8% compared to 19.6 GW in the first half of last year. Among them, the average capacity utilization rate of the 42 component companies that have been reported is 88.6%, which is 9 percentage points higher than the first half of last year.
Due to the substantial increase in capacity utilization and the continuous decline in technology innovation, the profit margin of PV companies increased significantly in the first half of the year. As of July 20, 26 of the 38 PV companies in the two cities have announced interim results. Among them, 22 companies' net profit increased in the first half of this year, accounting for 85% of the number of announced enterprises, with an average profit margin of 5%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, Longji shares ranked first in the industry with a net profit of over 800 million yuan.
Analysis: hidden hidden under the "hot"
According to Wang Bohua, secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, during the period of rushing to install, most of the first-line companies were full of orders, and in order to maintain shipments to the international market, they no longer accept domestic orders. Downstream sourcing companies generally favor big companies with brands, and are generally skeptical about whether small component companies can survive and fulfill their warranty commitments. Most of the SMEs are foundry and provide their own power station construction, and the signs of differentiation among enterprises are increasing.
In addition, during this time, many component manufacturing companies are in overtime and the products are in short supply. In this state, not many manufacturing companies will consider technological advances, improve conversion efficiency, reduce costs, and increase reliability. The power station construction unit, due to sufficient tasks and tight construction period, will inevitably affect the construction quality.
In addition, in the first half of the year, the problem of light and power cuts in some areas of China is still serious. The data shows that in the first quarter, China's photovoltaic power generation capacity was 11.8 billion kWh, an increase of 48% year-on-year. However, the national abandoned light limit is about 1.9 billion kWh. Mainly occurred in Gansu, Xinjiang and Ningxia, in which Gansu abandoned light limit of 840 million kWh, the light rejection rate was 39%; Xinjiang (including the Corps) abandoned light limit of 760 million kWh, the light rejection rate was 52%; Ningxia abandoned light limit Electricity is 210 million kWh, and the light rejection rate is 20%.
The reporter also learned that due to the impact of the rushing tide, some places have also experienced "brain overheating" in the construction of photovoltaic power plants, and even put forward unrealistic development goals, and regard photovoltaic poverty alleviation as the main means of rapid poverty alleviation in the short-term. Exceeding the carrying capacity of the photovoltaic power generation industry. Even some districts and cities have proposed that PV poverty alleviation projects cover the entire poverty-stricken households, and the conventional PV projects that have been built will have higher than the highest local electricity load when the photovoltaic power generation is fully implemented, which will inevitably lead to the abandonment of light and electricity. Therefore, after the tide of rushing in the first half of the year, as the scale of China's power plants is further expanded, the problem of power cuts will continue to increase. It is understood that some provinces that have abandoned light and electricity in China, such as Xinjiang and Gansu, have begun to implement measures to stop or suspend the issuance of indicators.
Shi Limin told reporters that in addition to the issue of abandoning light and electricity, the problem of photovoltaic subsidy arrears and financing is still not properly solved. The arrears of funds are difficult to issue in a timely manner, and the nature of land and land tax issues are beginning to show. .
Forecast: There is still room for development in the second half
Shi Limin told reporters that although there are many problems, in the second half of the year, driven by the "leaders" project, ground power station projects, poverty alleviation and distributed projects, the photovoltaic industry still has room for development. It is expected that China's new PV installations will be expected throughout the year. Reaching 30 GW will still remain the number one in the world. With the continuous expansion of the installed capacity of photovoltaics, some places have gradually begun to pursue the rational development of photovoltaics, especially focusing on high-reliability, high-quality photovoltaic products.
It is understood that in 2015, China's first demonstration base of 1 million kilowatts of runners settled in Datong, and it will be connected to the grid as scheduled at the end of June this year. In addition, according to the “Notice on the Implementation Plan for the Construction of Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2016â€, there are 8 photovoltaic “leaders†bases this year, and the scale has increased to 5.5 GW, accounting for more than one-third of the national annual PV installation total. The notice requires that before the end of July, the "leaders" base in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, and the two "leaders" bases in Shanxi will enter the bidding process. All bases must be identified before the end of September.
Shi Limin told reporters that with the slowdown of the PV market in the second half of the year, the expansion of self-owned capacity of large enterprises and the intensified competition in the future, coupled with the lack of scale and brand advantages of SMEs, the restructuring and integration between enterprises will accelerate. It will vigorously promote the advancement of photovoltaic power generation technology and reduce the cost of electricity.
On July 25, the world's leading photovoltaic product manufacturer Zhongsheng and the world's largest high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon material manufacturer Longji shares officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement in Shanghai. Zhongsheng and Longji announced that they will set up a joint venture to jointly promote the global promotion of high-efficiency monocrystalline solar modules and power generation technology to reduce the cost of downstream photovoltaic power generation. This can be said to be a typical case of the successful integration of China's PV companies. At the same time, vigorously implementing photovoltaic poverty alleviation, promoting the new mode of photovoltaic power generation and building roof, tidal flats, lakes, fish ponds and agricultural greenhouses and related industries will further expand the scale of China's photovoltaic applications. For the photovoltaic industry, this is the best era. Although there are still many problems, because photovoltaics are clean and environmentally friendly renewable energy, they are the main direction of future energy development. Under the encouragement of a series of government policies and measures, The industry will still have good development space in the second half of the year.
Photovoltaic: First half of the year
Abstract According to preliminary statistics relevant departments in the first half of this year China's photovoltaic power generation more than 20 GW of new installed capacity, equivalent to nearly three times the same period last year. Shi Limin, executive deputy secretary-general of the New Energy Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, told reporters that enterprises are rushing to pretend before the PV power grid price is lowered...
According to preliminary statistics of relevant departments, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China in the first half of this year exceeded 20 GW, which is equivalent to nearly three times that of the same period last year.