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1. Overview
The order value of Japanese machine tools has shown a clear recovery trend since the end of 2002. Especially after 2004, it has exceeded l trillion yen for four consecutive years. In 2006 and 2007, it has updated the highest ever.
As of the first half of 2008, Japanese machine tool orders remained dominated by external demand, basically maintaining the same high level as the previous year, but since June, it has turned negative growth compared with the same month of the previous year, until the end of the year. More and more obvious. In 2008, despite the overall record of more than 1 trillion yen for five consecutive years at a level of 1 trillion 301.1 billion yen, there has been a negative growth after a lapse of six years.
2. Overview of 2008
By the middle of 2008, it had basically maintained the same high level as the previous year, but in the second half of the year, due to the financial crisis, orders received after October showed a sharp slowdown.
(1) Domestic demand
In 2008, domestic demand for Japanese machine tools was 566.8 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, showing a double-digit negative growth, with a decline that exceeded foreign demand.
1) In terms of general machinery, the investment in small and medium-sized enterprises, which is mainly based on the metal forming industry, has shown a decreasing trend. In addition, the order quantity of construction machinery and large equipment industry, which has maintained a good momentum, has also turned into a deceleration tone.
2) The automobile industry is mainly in the parts and components. Due to the delay and freezing of the equipment investment plan caused by the global automobile tip sales deceleration, the order quantity reduction trend is increasingly obvious.
3) In terms of electromechanical and precision machinery, it has been declining due to the suppression of production and investment in the IT industry.
(2) External demand
In 2008, Japan’s external demand for machine tools was 734.3 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 15%. However, due to the more obvious decline in domestic demand, the external demand ratio reached 56.4%, achieving the highest level ever.
After October, external demand is similar to domestic demand, and the trend of reduction is becoming more and more obvious. From the perspective of industry categories, investment in energy and infrastructure is smaller than that in industries such as automobiles.
From the perspective of major demand areas, the proportion of Asia and Europe is basically the same as in 2007, 37% in Asia, 32% in Europe and 27% in North America.
Second, the amount of orders in 2009 (order quantities in January and February)
After entering 2009, the amount of orders received in January was 19 billion yen (down 84.1% year-on-year), and in February it was 20.4 billion yen (down 84.4% year-on-year), and the year-on-year decline continued to expand.
Third, industry development forecast
In February 2009, it increased by 7.2% compared with the previous month. Although there is no trend of further deterioration, it does mean that it has bottomed out and it needs to be observed.
In the medium term, with the advancement of national economic measures, the world's economic climate, including emerging development regions, is expected to return to the growth track again, and machine tool demand is expected to turn into an expanded tone again.
Fourth, other machine tool indicators
In 2008, other indicators in the Japanese machine tool industry were the same as orders, showing a negative year-on-year growth. In 2008, the value of machine tools was 1,244.9 billion yen, the fourth highest level ever, but still down 4% year-on-year. In 2008, the export volume was 874.8 billion yen, a decrease of 2% year-on-year; the import value was 60.2 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 17%.
Japanese machine tool industry development trend
I. Overview of machine tool orders up to 2008