Expert: The weather process climate in the northern region has broken the previous law

      Expert: relevant research to be still normal weather disasters, most of North China Region Weather whether to global warming

 

Q: Why is North China snowy?

A: The local water vapor is abundant, and it meets the cold air to form snowfall.

 

Q: Is El Nino a blame?

A: This phenomenon is difficult to explain the current weather process in the north.

 

Expert Q & A

 

This newspaper ( Beijing correspondent Zhao Linlin ) from 2009 average temperature is higher than normal, to the sudden low temperature cold wave in 2010 and even the blizzard weather, what is the reason for the recent northern part of the region encountered blizzard weather?

 

Low temperature precipitation causes snowfall as the main

 

Central Meteorological Station chief forecaster Sun Jun told reporters that the main reason for Beijing, Tianjin and other places the snow is from the Mongolian Plateau down a force stronger than cold air, combined with the more abundant moisture conditions caused by North China . After the cold air comes down, the water vapor produces a strong upward movement, bringing heavy precipitation. Due to the relatively low temperature in North China, precipitation is dominated by snowfall.

 

National Climate Center Chief Forecaster Wang Yongguang also told reporters that, despite the snowfall, the snow in some places in Beijing, Tianjin and other places to break the historical extremes, but most of the region is still in the normal range.

 

Wang Yongguang also said that the current data analysis, appear near the Mongolian Plateau momentum so strong cold air, is a major cause of Arctic Oscillation Index is in negative phase related, which means that polar cold air spread to the mid-latitudes, Siberia The high pressure is strong and the cold air is strong.

 

The original regularity of the climate was broken

 

The reporter learned from the China Meteorological Administration that in 2009 , China's national average temperature was significantly higher, the average precipitation was significantly less, the annual average temperature was 9.9 degrees Celsius, 1 degree Celsius higher than normal , the third highest value in 1951 .

 

Into 2010, since January 2, North China appeared cold and snow weather process, in terms of long-term climate change context, whether these changes associated with El Niño?

 

China Meteorological Administration and Public Services Division Emergency Disaster Reduction Chen Zhenlin analysis said that in the context of global climate change, extreme weather disasters will increase indeed enhanced, all kinds of weather occurred over the past year, climate events are in the global climate change occur in the context of, but specific to a particular process is not caused by global climate change, weather experts and the community are studied. However, one thing is certain, that is, as the global warming, the original regularity of the climate is broken.

 

Wang Yongguang believes that it is difficult to explain the severe weather process encountered in northern China by using the El Niño phenomenon. Because in general, in the El Niño year, precipitation in North China is less, while precipitation in the South is more. But this winter, the climate in northern China is somewhat abnormal, breaking the rules of the past.

 

Don't have to be nervous about the weather

 

Professor Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University Haijun yesterday also said that at present, the north face of the severe weather changes in the weather process is a range domain, but a process of a change in the weather about whether changes are still under study and the overall climate, both Not directly linked.

 

Throughout the world, some countries and regions have also experienced severe weather. Whether this is related to climate change is not easy to say. "The words to the public, this unnecessary too nervous, which are within the range of the Earth's weather, these weather conditions are also not very much."

 

News link

The next 10 days

Cold air is still frequent

 

Another hearing yesterday, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued weather forecast for the next 10 days, the next 10 days, the impact of cold air activity is frequent, strong forces; in most parts of China's eastern temperatures than normal in 1 ~ 3 ℃, which the North East local areas of the south Eastern North China and other places of low temperatures in 4 ~ 6 ℃.

 

Local influence

Guangdong is warm winter this year.

Provincial Climate Center Forecast -

Guangdong is warm winter this year.

 

This newspaper ( reporter Yekas correspondent Yang Weiwei ) has frequent cold air in the near future, people are worried that the 2008 low temperature freezing disaster may come back. The climate expert of the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau said in an interview yesterday that the average temperature in Guangdong during the Spring Festival of 2010 will be slightly higher than that of normal years . In addition, the temperature in Guangzhou during the Spring Festival will be higher than normal, between 15 and 19 °C. .

 

Q: Why is this winter like "winter"?

A: The polar vortex is stronger for the cold air to go south.

 

In the 21st century, Guangzhou and Guangdong often warm winter, giving the formation of a "winter without getting cold" impression. But this year under frequent cold air south, often to pick up a few days when temperatures turn sharply downward, many people think that saying "this winter is very abnormal."

 

Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau forecast Climate Center Room Deputy Chief Wang Ting explained that this is mainly because the winter polar vortex is strong, and the middle and high latitudes in a ring by anisotropic flow is conducive to cold air south of Guangdong.

 

The Climate Center predicts that in the second half of the winter, the polar vortex will pass northward, shift westward and favor the western hemisphere, and the meridional circulation will also turn into a zonal circulation. At that time, the cold air will go south to Guangdong, which may not be as frequent as in the first half of winter.

 

Q: Is there a freezing disaster during the Spring Festival?

A: It is less likely to appear this winter.

 

　　 2008 cryogenic freezing disaster, one of the main reasons is a WEBTISR from the Bay of Bengal provides a steady stream of water vapor, and frequent cold air southward north intersection, forming a sustained frost damage. Since the beginning of winter, there have been frequent “wet and cold” conditions in Guangdong. The cooling is always in the rain. Is this a precursor to the recurrence of freezing damage?

 

Climate experts explained that this winter is not the same as in 2008. This year, the southern branch is not too strong, and the source of water vapor is mainly in the western Pacific. “Because the subtropical high is located near the western Pacific, water vapor is transported to Guangdong. With the change of the sub-high position, the water vapor transport will not be so frequent. On the other hand, the number of cold air southward may also decrease. It is less likely to occur in the winter of 2008. "

 

Q: What is the weather like during the Spring Festival holiday in Guangzhou?

A: The temperature may be between 15 and 19 °C.

 

The Spring Festival will begin at the end of this month. Will the weather conditions be good or bad? Reporters learned that, according outlook Climate Center of Guangdong Province between 2010 and the spring of weather trends, the average temperature in Guangdong Province during the Spring Festival will be slightly higher than normal over the same period, roughly: North 11 ~ 15 ℃, the middle 13 ~ 16 ℃, south of 15 ~19 °C.

 

During the Spring Festival holiday, the temperature in Guangzhou may be between 15 and 19 °C, and the precipitation is between 0 and 15 mm. In the late Spring Festival , precipitation may be accompanied by cold air .