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Olivia Boyd (hereinafter referred to as Bo): China has greatly reduced the cost of solar power, but new research shows that this is at the expense of the environment. Can this industry be cleaned up?
Ma Xueli (hereinafter referred to as Ma): I am completely willing to believe in this research, but I think this is somewhat irrelevant because people only care about financial costs. If people are also concerned about the environmental impact of making solar panels, we must have already paid a carbon tax.
China has its own environmental regulations, and solar companies are committed to comply. If you still have to do something, it seems to be closing your door. Because solar panels are first and foremost a commodity, if you make your own costs higher, you can compete with others.
We had a crisis four years ago. With the rapid development of the global market, Chinese solar panel manufacturers said: We want to increase market share, so we will expand production capacity. As a result, by 2011 and 2012, there was a world demand of 30 million kilowatts, while supply reached 60 million kilowatts. The price of solar panels dropped sharply from $2 per watt to 60 cents, and everyone lost money.
Therefore, to exceed the existing carbon emission reduction requirements and be more environmentally responsible, it is an unaffordable luxury for Chinese solar manufacturers.
Bo: The United States has just announced a new tariff on Chinese solar panels, which is the latest trend of the growing trade war. What is the impact of this?
Ma: Look at the prices of Chinese manufacturers. After the US announced new tariffs, they generally cut 5-10%. On the contrary, the price of the first solar and Sunpower in the United States has been raised. Therefore, I think this measure in the United States has hindered the popularity of solar power generation, which is frustrating.
In the past year, we have been charging high tariffs on Chinese solar panels. This led to the selection of the following circuit lines for all Chinese solar panels exported to the United States: their silicon ingots and wafers were produced in mainland China, then shipped to Taiwan for battery production and shipped back to the mainland for production components. As a result, the so-called high tariffs have become a piece of paper, the US government does not earn a penny, only fattening Taiwan's solar manufacturers, while hindering the popularity of solar energy in the United States.
When you repeatedly consider which solar panels produced in the US, China, or Europe are more environmentally friendly, I think the environmental impact here is not worth mentioning in the face of the environmental damage caused by narrow industrial interests.
Bo: What is the solution?
Ma: There is ongoing discussion between the China Solar Energy Industry Group and the US government, and the two major industry associations in the United States are also discussing and trying to reach a negotiated solution. I think this agreement can be achieved and there may be a subsidy to help American manufacturers survive. But in my opinion, solar panels are a commodity, so it must be cost-effective. If the cost of producing solar panels in China is higher, what is the problem?
When I saw the first round of tariff implementation two years ago, I felt too bad. China's solar industry cannot cooperate more effectively with downstream solar companies in the United States because Americans have a ridiculous idea of ​​"Chinese manufacturers grab jobs from American solar panel makers," but in reality the roof solar panels downstream of the industry. Installation can generate more job opportunities.
Bo: Why is the export-oriented nature of China's solar PV market so strong?
Ma: If you look at the broader background, the leading technology of solar power generation is photovoltaic technology that has been available 60 years ago, and it has been expensive for more than 50 years, reaching 8-10 US dollars per watt, only one A niche market dominated by German and Japanese companies. Fifteen years ago, Europe established a feed-in tariff system, which began to develop, albeit from a very low and expensive basis.
China saw this situation and said, "We can do it." So there have been dozens of solar companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and they have raised enough capital to really reduce costs. For a long time, we are all wondering when China will establish a feed-in tariff to encourage domestic expansion of solar power. Two years ago, they greatly increased their polysilicon production, and it was indeed realized through the on-grid price.
Three or four years ago, Europe's solar panel market accounted for 70% of the world's total, and now the drama has been reduced to 20%. China became the world's largest solar panel market for the first time last year, with sales of 8 million kilowatts, and this year is expected to reach 12 to 14 million. kilowatt. Therefore, China is very valued for solar energy. After becoming the largest wind energy market, China has now become the largest solar market.
Bo: Do ​​you think this is an innovative industry, besides price "innovation"?
Ma: No, we are using a technology that has existed for 60 years. This technique also has some minor repairs on the corners. Everyone loves to say that they are different, but in fact these solar panels can be replaced with each other. Someone always found me saying: "I have built a new company with this new wind/solar technology. Do you want to work with me to develop this project?" My answer is "No", I think Chinese companies They are not very good at commercializing new technologies. They are good at making traditional technology “killing the woods†and mainly reducing costs. There are many interesting new technologies in the field of wind energy and solar energy, but I think the probability of this happening in China is relatively low, and there are few in large listed companies.
Bo: Do ​​you think China's next “five-year plan†will have greater support for the solar photovoltaic industry?
Ma: The Chinese have raised their estimates. China has long established a target of 35 million kilowatts of installed solar power capacity by 2015, and it seems to be moving smoothly toward the goal. Today, China is exploring the goal of reaching 70 million kilowatts by 2020, and I think this amount will be getting bigger and bigger.
I was very impressed with China's work. It was originally an on-grid price, but now it is another effort. This is why China's solar market has jumped from a small to a large market. However, China has a problem with its distributed generation goals. Initially, the State Council set a target of 12 million kilowatts this year, but the State Grid said that 60% of it must be distributed generation, that is, rooftop solar energy, and it is densely populated in the east. For a one-year period, this goal is too great, because it is much easier to install solar panels in the deserts of Xinjiang than to calculate how they are all done on the roof. We hope they can narrow this 60% goal because it is totally unrealistic.
Bo: Do ​​you think the industry is stronger now, or is it that the next crisis is only a matter of time?
Ma: One of the differences is that the global market is now more balanced than in the past. It is no longer just dependent on Europe. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the Japanese market has grown a lot, and the US and Chinese markets have continued to grow.
This is not a good industry, the stock price is changing rapidly, and the price of the product is changing rapidly, but if you are really in control, it is still possible to succeed.
China's solar photovoltaic market is going up
Abstract The former banker Ma Xueli is now an independent director of China's two major renewable energy companies, Jingke Solar and Mingyang Wind Power Group. His comments represent only personal opinions. Olivia Boyd (hereinafter referred to as Bo):...
Former banker Ma Xueli is now an independent director of China's two major renewable energy companies, Jingke Solar and Mingyang Wind Power Group. His comments represent only personal opinions.